The Dismal Science
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The Dismal Science
Join the AICD’s Chief Economist Mark Thirlwell GAICD for this weekly deep dive into the latest economic news from Australia and around the world. From interest rates to trade wars and everything in between, we have you covered.
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220 - The RBA's Confident-but-also-Uncertain rate cut
When the RBA cut rates back in February this year it sounded cautious. This time it sounded confident. At least kind of. It also sounded pretty uncert...
219 - Markets, Tariffs, and the RBA Outlook
In this week’s episode, we unpack the post-election market rally, Trump’s unexpected retreat on tariffs and renewed trade talks with China, fresh data...
218 - What should the RBA do?
The RBA's new Monetary Policy Board meets later this month to consider the case for a second rate cut in the current easing cycle. What will it make o...
Special - Trump, Tariffs and Turmoil
Instead of the traditional Easter Egg, the Dismal Science pod has a quick take on the implications of 'Liberation Day' and its aftermath in its Easter...
Dismal Science Live at AGS: US Markets, CHIPS Act, Geopolitical Shifts, and Australian Economic Concerns
In this live from the Australian Governance Summit episode, hosts Raphael Dixon and Mark Thurwal analyze current economic and geopolitical development...
217 - GDP Relief and a Fracturing Global Order
This week on the Dismal Science, Raphael and Mark dissect the latest Australian GDP figures, revealing the end of the per capita recession, though pro...
216 - Eight reasons a soft landing is uncertain
This week, Raphael and Mark dissect the latest inflation data and react to recent rate cuts, examining whether the soft landing declared by the IMF is...
215 - 🍾 Rate Cut Victory Lap! 🍾 AI’s Sputnik Moment & the US’ Smoot-Hawley Moment.
We're back, and we force Mark to take a victory lap for his February rate cut prediction! We dive into the details of the RBA's decision and its impli...
Special - Tech, AI, the New World Order, and the Future of Growth
We’re taking a break from our usual format to look at some of the big technological and economic themes of 2024, and where they are going in 2025 and...
Special - 2024 Wrap Up: A Year of Living Conservatively Ft. Su-Lin Ong
This week we are joined by Su-Lin Ong, Managing Director, Chief Economist & Senior Corporate Relationship Manager of RBC Capital Markets. Together Mar...
214 - February Rate Cut Back On The Table?
The RBA keeps interest rates on hold, but the big news is a change in tone that suggests Mark's long predicted February rate cut is back on the table....
213 - GDP Growth Stumbles, Per Capita Recession Deepens, Will the RBA Hold Firm?
This week, we examine Australia's latest soft GDP figures. The headline number is a weak 0.3% quarterly expansion, the lowest rate of annual growth si...
212 - Is Germany Kaput? Lessons for Australia in a Deglobalising World
This week, the Dismal Science turns its attention to Europe’s economic powerhouse - Germany.
We examine the country's recent economic struggles,...
211 - Rate Cut Prediction on Life Support? Labour Market Holds Strong & COP29 Gets Political
This week on the Dismal Science, Mark and Raph take a look at the latest Australian labour market figures and what it means for Mark's increasingly sh...
US Election Special: The Return of Tariff Man
Join Mark and Raph to unpack the potential economic implications of the US election result.
We examine some of the key economic policy pledges t...
210 - Wage Growth Slows, Consumer Sentiment Lifts...but for How Long?
This week on The Dismal Science, we examine the latest economic data releases, including wage growth figures, consumer and business sentiment surveys,...
209 - US Election Volatility! Plus the RBA Holds, But For How Long?
The big news this week is the US presidential election. Markets are reacting in real time as results come in - we look at the volatility and what it m...
208 - Inflation Cools, But Services Stay Hot. Will Rate Cuts Come Sooner?
This week we look at the latest Australian inflation figures.
The September quarter CPI figures came in slightly better than expected, with the...
207 - IMF says "Mission Accomplished"? Bumper jobs numbers, and revisiting Mark's prediction...
Today we have an in-depth look at the IMF's latest World Economic Outlook report, before returning home to dissect the bumper jobs numbers and latest...
206 - Oil price swings, China stimulus fallout, RBA minutes, and consumer confidence.
Another week, another economic roller coaster. Join Mark and Raph to discuss the recent volatility in oil prices, driven by factors including the Is...
205 - Housing is cooling, back to back surpluses, we're still unproductive, and the complexities of oil pricing.
Much to discuss on the agenda today.
We unpack recent housing data, exploring the slowdown in price and rent growth alongside lagging approvals...
204 - Inflation trends maybe good? Interest rates stuck & China's sweeping monetary moves.
We begin with a look at recent inflation data. While headline inflation has decreased, Mark explore why the underlying numbers suggest continued vigil...
203 - Labour market news, a pacy 50 bps Fed rate cut, and how Middle East unrest affects us down here.
In this short but packed episode, we go through the complex economic landscape facing Australia and the world.
We discuss the significance of th...
202 - Central bank independence in a changing world; from the RBA to the CBRT
Prompted by proposed changes to Australia's Reserve Bank, as well as increased criticism of central banks globally, today we discuss what central bank...
201 - Mark’s Return: A brief global market meltdown, the RBA’s “don’t call it forward guidance” guidance, and our sluggish GDP numbers.
We welcome back AICD Chief Economist Mark Thirlwell, fresh from his holiday, as we dive into the market turbulence that peaked while Mark was celebrat...
200 - A long goodbye
It's our 200th episode and Ivan's last ever :( Mark turns the tables on him and asks what's changed in economics since we started the podcast and what...
199 - A marriage of convenience
Mark Thirlwell is once again joined by Raphael Dixon to discuss the new consumer confidence survey, revealing falling confidence, as well as expectati...
198 - Tour de Canberra
Mark regales us with the vibe on the ground in Canberra. Plus, an around the grounds on:
• RBA Minutes
• Core logic house and rent price d...
197 - I mean it's one burrito Mark, what could it cost? $111?
Monthly inflation numbers have come in hot, adding pressure on the RBA to lift rates.
What does the upcoming French election tell us ab...
196 - Succulent Chinese deal
Trade with China continues to flourish despite strategic and political tension. Does Chinese Premier Li Qiang's visit to Australia mean we can continu...
195 - Diverging paths
An end to the era of globalisation has led to developing countries once again falling behind. As the costs of fragmentation become apparent, should a...
194 - The shipping news
Global shipping is gummed up again with Houthi attacks in the Red Sea, renewed pirate attacks in the Gulf of Aden, and drought affecting the Panama ca...
193 - Risky business (with guest Roger Dennis)
New Zealand economist Roger Dennis advises boards globally on long-term thinking and foresight. We spoke to him on how directors should think about th...
192 - The juggler (Budget 24/25)
The treasurer had a juggling act to perform in this budget: fiscal repair, cost-of-living relief, inflation reduction and productivity growth were all...
191 - Chart with decreasing yen emoji
The yen has plunged to a 34 year low requiring the Bank of Japan to spend billions to prop it up. Why are hedge funds attacking the yen? Plus, we prev...
190 - A Cook's tour
A Cook's tour of the global economy: we take in the European malaise, the Trump spectre over the US, the China shock 2.0, and a resurgence in migratio...
189 - Not out of the woods
Inflation remains stubborn in Australia, running hotter in the March quarter than economists expected. Is there now a chance that the next rate move m...
188 - Industrial chic
Industrial policy is making a comeback globally and Australia wants in on the action. Boosting supply chain resilience, accelerating the net zero tran...
187 - Lost in the supermarket
A review into the supermarket code of conduct landed this week, raising fresh questions about competition. Can we raise prices for suppliers, while al...
186 - Statistical error
Questioning the official labour market data used to be the preserve of conspiracy theorists, but the surveys across the globe have been plagued by pro...